海洋经济

2016, v.6;No.34(04) 20-27

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基于EES协同模型的广东省海洋生态系统安全评价
Safety Assessment of Marine Ecosystem in Guangdong Province Based on the EES Model

刘汉斌;
LIU Hanbin;Marine Economy & Management Research Center,Guangdong Ocean University;

摘要(Abstract):

针对目前海洋生态安全问题频发及其保护形势严峻的现状,重新厘定其内涵,构建EES(环境—经济—社会)协同模型,确定海洋生态系统安全评价指标体系和评价标准。以广东省为研究对象,运用模糊物元法,对2000—2013年广东省海洋生态系统安全进行实证评价。结果表明,广东省海洋生态系统安全状况整体呈现不断提高的态势,但仍然处于较低的水平;其中海洋环境生态安全子系统基本处于临界安全状态,海洋经济生态安全子系统一直保持持续稳定上升的态势,海洋社会生态安全子系统在2000—2006年呈快速增长的态势,2006—2013年则是在临界安全阶段上下波动。
Ecological value and service functions of marine ecosystems is the basis for the sustainable development of mankind. Aiming at the frequent marine ecological protection and security issues at present and the grim situation of protection, the paper re-determined its meaning and builds the EES(Environment-Economy-Society) collaborative model to determine the marine ecosystem safety evaluation index system and evaluation criteria.Taking Guangdong province as the research object, and focusing on the time series data of2000-2013, the fuzzy matter element method was used to evaluate the safety of marine ecosystem in Guangdong province. The results showed that the overall security situation of the marine ecosystem in Guangdong province presents an increasingly improving trend, but still remains at a low level; meanwhlie, the marine environmental and ecological security subsystem basic is basically in a critical security state, the marine economic ecological security subsystem has maintained a sustained and stable security upward trend, the marine social ecological security subsystem in 2000-2006 showed a rapid growth and in 2006-2013 fluctuated in the stage of critical security.

关键词(KeyWords): 海洋生态,安全系统;EES;模糊物元;持续发展
marine ecology;security systems;EES;fuzzy matter-element;sustainable development

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基金项目(Foundation): 广东省教育厅创新强校青年创新人才类项目“南海海洋生态环境变化的集成管理研究”[2015WQNCX049];; 广东海洋大学人文社会科学研究一般项目“大数据视阙下南海近海海洋环境变化集成管理研究”[C14536]

作者(Author): 刘汉斌;
LIU Hanbin;Marine Economy & Management Research Center,Guangdong Ocean University;

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