海洋经济

2016, v.6;No.31(01) 46-51

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山东省风暴潮灾害经济损失预测——基于灰色—周期外延组合模型
The Financial Loss Prediction of Storm Surge in Shandong Province Based on the Gray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model

高强;谷文凯;林亚琼;王妍;
Gao Qiang;Gu Wenkai;Lin Yaqiong;Wang Yan;Management College of Ocean University of China;

摘要(Abstract):

山东省是海洋灾害多发的省份,其中以风暴潮灾害为最甚,给山东省带来了十分巨大的经济损失。运用灰色—周期外延模型对山东省风暴潮灾害造成的直接经济损失进行预测,期望能够构建一个有效的预测模型,对风暴潮灾害进行准确的预测,研究发现2015年和2016年风暴潮可能造成的损失分别为5.92和5.88亿元,相比前两年来说风暴潮造成的损失要大,相关部门要做好防灾减灾的准备。
Shandong is one of the provinces which are marine disaster-prone, and among all kinds of disasters occurred in Shandong province, storm surge is the most serious. This paper uses the gray-periodic extensional combinatorial model to predict the direct financial losses caused by storm surge in Shandong province, expecting to structure an effective prediction model to accurately predict the loss of storm surge. This study found that in 2015 and 2016,the loss caused by storm surge may be 592 and 588 million yuan( RMB) respectively.Compared with the previous two years, the loss caused by storm surge was much greater, so the relevant departments should be prepared for the disaster prevention and reduction.

关键词(KeyWords): 风暴潮;灾害经济损失;损失预测;灰色-周期外延模型
storm surge;financial loss;gray-periodic extensional combinatorial model

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 海洋发展研究会重点项目“我国海洋生态安全标准及预警机制研究”[CAMAZD201403];; 国家海洋软科学项目“海洋灾害污染重大事件处理能力建设”[OSS2014-21]

作者(Author): 高强;谷文凯;林亚琼;王妍;
Gao Qiang;Gu Wenkai;Lin Yaqiong;Wang Yan;Management College of Ocean University of China;

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DOI: 10.19426/j.cnki.cn12-1424/p.2016.01.008

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