海洋经济

2017, v.7;No.38(02) 23-29

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港口投资与区域经济发展的关系研究——以“宁波港口经济圈”建设为例
Research on the Relationship between Port Investment and Regional Economic Development——Taking the construction of “Ningbo port economic circle” for example

闫国庆;袁道君;吴桥;
YAN Guoqing;YUAN Daojun;WU Qiao;Zhejiang Wanli University;Shanghai Ocean University;

摘要(Abstract):

2013年以来,国家陆续提出 "一带一路"、"长江经济带" 等战略,浙江省、宁波市也提出要充分利用好战略机遇和宁波—舟山港优势,打造辐射长三角、影响华东片的 "宁波港口经济圈"。宁波是一个港口城市,社会经济发展在一定程度上依赖港口发展水平。改革开放以来,宁波港口投资比重逐年增长,港口投资对宁波社会经济发展的影响也日益凸显。把港口投资作为经济增长的一个内生变量,截取宁波市1985—2014年的年度数据为样本,探讨港口投资与区域GDP、第二产业增加值、口岸进出口额和社会就业间的相互关系。经过ADF检验、E-G协整方程检验、格兰杰因果性检验得出结论:长期来看,港口投资与GDP、第二产业增加值、社会就业和口岸贸易存在正向均衡关系。港口投资是GDP、社会就业和口岸进出额的格兰杰原因,同时与第二产业增加值存在相互的格兰杰因果关系。
Since 2013,China has put forward "the Belt and Road " and "the Yangtze River Economic Belt " strategies and the Zhejiang provincial and Ningbo municipal governments have also proposed to make full use of strategic opportunities and the advantage of Ningbo-Zhoushan port to build the " Ningbo port economic circle" which can Influence the Yangtze River Delta and East China area. Ningbo is a port city and to a certain extent, its social and economic development depends on the level of port development. Since the reform and opening up, the proportion of investment in Ningbo port has increased year by year, and the impact of port investment on Ningbo's social and economic development has become increasingly prominent. This paper regards the port investment as an endogenous variable of economic growth, sampling data of Ningbo from 1985 to 2014 to discuss the relationship between port investment and regional GDP, the added value of the secondary industry, port import and export volume and social employment. After the ADF test, E-G cointegration test, Grainger causality test, it has come to the following conclusions: in the long run, there is a positive equilibrium relationship between port investment and GDP, secondary industry added value, social employment and port trade. Port investment is the Grainger reason of the GDP, social employment and port trade, and has a mutual Grainger causal relationship with the added value of secondary industry.

关键词(KeyWords): 港口经济圈;港口投资;经济增长;协整检验
Port economic circle;Port investment;Economic growth;Cointegration test

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 浙江省哲社重点研究基地临港现代服务业与创意文化研究中心项目“宁波港口经济圈中心与辐射区域空间结构演变及协调发展研究” [15JDLG02YB]

作者(Author): 闫国庆;袁道君;吴桥;
YAN Guoqing;YUAN Daojun;WU Qiao;Zhejiang Wanli University;Shanghai Ocean University;

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