海洋经济

2017, v.7;No.41(05) 30-36+57

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中国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家贸易对我国经济增长的影响分析——基于VAR模型的实证研究
Analysis of the influence of China's trade with countries along the "Maritime Silk Road" on China's economic growth——Empirical analysis based on the VAR model

彭渤;胡麦秀;
PENG Bo;HU Maixiu;College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University;

摘要(Abstract):

利用VAR模型,并通过Granger因果分析,脉冲响应分析和方差分解法,对1993—2015年期间我国与"海上丝绸之路"沿线国家的贸易数据进行实证分析,结果表明:我国对"海上丝绸之路"沿线国家的出口对我国的经济增长在短期有明显的促进作用,而在长期,出口对我国经济增长的影响并不明显;进口对我国的经济增长影响则在长期更为明显。
U sing the VAR model, and through the Granger causality analysis, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition method, the paper made an empirical analysis of the trade data of China and countries along the "Maritime Silk Road" for the period 1993-2015. The results showed that the China's export to the countries along the "Maritime Silk Road" had an obvious promoting effect on China's economic growth in short term, but in the long term, the impact was not obvious, while, the effect of import on China's economic growth was more obvious.

关键词(KeyWords): 进出口贸易;海上丝绸之路;经济增长
Import and export trade;Maritime Silk Road;Economic growth

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基金项目(Foundation): 天津市科技兴海项目[KJXH2014-26]

作者(Author): 彭渤;胡麦秀;
PENG Bo;HU Maixiu;College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University;

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