海洋经济

2016, v.6;No.33(03) 48-54

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基于灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的广西水海产品出口预测研究——灰色系统理论与应用系列论文之一
Prediction of the Aquatic Products Export in Guangxi Based on the Grey Metabolic GM(1,1) Model—First paper in the series of articles on grey system theory and application

朱念;
Zhu Nian;School of Economics and Management, Qinzhou University;

摘要(Abstract):

在分析广西水海产品出口现状的基础上,运用灰色系统理论和方法,建立广西水海产品出口趋势的灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,在GMS7.0环境下对该模型的精度与误差进行了分析,并利用该模型对广西水海产品的出口趋势进行预测。预测结果显示,灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型结果能明显地提高预测精度。在对预测结果进行分析的基础上,提出完善产业链、大力招商引资、建议统一质量标准、加强科技创新、扶持品牌建设的对策建议,以利于广西水海产品出口实现可持续发展。
Based on the analysis of the present situation of aquatic products export in Guangxi, the paper used the grey system theory and method, established the Grey Metabolic GM(1, 1) model for the export of aquatic products in Guangxi. The accuracy and the error of the model were analyzed in the GMS7.0 environment, and the model was used to predict the trend of Guangxi aquatic product export. The prediction results show that the Grey Metabolic GM(1, 1) model can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. Through the analysis of the forecast results, the paper put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for perfecting the industrial chain, energetically promoting investments from overseas recommending a unified quality standards, strengthening scientific and technological innovation, and supporting brand building, in order to realize the sustainable development of Guangxi water seafood export.

关键词(KeyWords): 灰色系统;新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型;水海产品出口;广西
Grey system;Metabolic GM(1,1) model;Aquatic products export

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 2014广西教育厅科研课题“广西北部湾海洋经济可持续发展研究”[YB2014406];; 广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地海洋文化研究中心2015年度课题项目“生态文明视阈下广西海洋经济与海洋战略研究”[2015BMCD01]

作者(Author): 朱念;
Zhu Nian;School of Economics and Management, Qinzhou University;

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